2020年石油市场将面临供应过剩

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价8月14日报道，油价似乎陷入了泥沼，石油供应过剩将在2020年冲击市场，潜在的经济衰退即将来临。少数几个可能颠覆这一预测的因素之一是，非欧佩克国家的石油供应大幅放缓。

供应过剩在很大程度上是建立在供应继续增长之际需求恶化的情况下。国际能源署预计，非欧佩克国家今年的石油日产量将增加190万桶，到2020年将再增加220万桶，而需求增幅将达到上述水平的一半左右。

市场可能会保持大致平衡，甚至在2019年下半年出现回调。国际能源署在其最新的石油市场报告中写道:“市场将在2020年初面临潜在的供应过剩，届时对欧佩克(OPEC)原油的需求将跌至每日2840万桶。”今年7月，欧佩克的日产量为2971万桶，因此，根据IEA的数据，欧佩克明年将不得不进一步减产，以避免供应过剩。

全球供应增长主要来自美国页岩油，因此页岩油的增长速度对预测结果非常重要。不过值得注意的是，美国石油产量增长一直在放缓。IEA表示：“今年迄今，美国原油供应增长乏力。在2019年前5个月，日产量仅增长了7.5万桶/日。”近期，一些低于预期的数据原因来自海上油田的维护，以及飓风造成的供应临时中断。

在至关重要的二叠纪盆地，产量增长仍然显著，但一直在减速。2018年8月，二叠纪盆地的日产量同比增长达到峰值，为每日113万桶，但本月增速放缓至每日72.8万桶。EIA的钻探产能报告预计，9月钻探产能将进一步增长，但增幅将更低，为每日70.5万桶。

二叠纪的新管道可能会带来更多的产量增长。随着最近一条大型新管道的启动，米德兰级原油的折扣已经消失，预计今年晚些时候还会有几条新管道投入使用，这将增加更多的中游产能。然而，尽管这些管道项目曾一度被认为会引发二叠纪地区下一波的爆炸性增长，但现在情况已经不同了。

国际能源署表示,二叠纪地区即将启动的每日逾200万桶新管道产能，以及6月份水力压裂活动的强劲增长，预计将刺激墨西哥湾沿岸产出和出口的进一步增长。然而，石油生产商正持谨慎态度，几乎没有迹象表明钻探活动加速。此外，钻探放缓给美国服务公司带来了损失,包括斯伦贝谢、哈里伯顿公司, 这两家公司“对2019年剩余时间的勘探和生产前景”并不看好。独立板块将继续注重资本约束而不是产出增长。

在二叠纪之外，美国页岩油供应正陷入停滞。波士顿咨询集团能源中心高级主管杰米�6�1韦伯斯特对标普全球表示:“值得一提的是，有些盆地的情况比其他盆地更糟。我们开始看到丹佛-朱尔斯堡盆地和鹰福特盆地的效率增长出现停滞。”

与此同时，美国以外的非欧佩克国家的产量增长也将成为明年供需平衡的重要因素。国际能源署对2020年石油市场供应充足的预测，取决于它对北美以外非欧佩克国家供应增长更强劲的预测。国际能源署的报告预计，这一数字将从2019年的每日21万桶升至2020年的每日85万桶。如果没有这种加速增长，预计2020年的市场盈余将消失。

投资银行表示：“不相信这种增长将会出现。”国际能源署已多次下调对这些国家的供应增长预期。例如，在其最新的石油市场报告中，国际能源署将石油日产量预测下调了10万桶，主要原因是巴西和挪威的表现令人失望。渣打银行总结称:“我们认为，2020年实际增长也可能低于IEA的预测。”

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Will We See An Oil Supply Glut In 2020?

Oil prices seem to be in big trouble, with a supply glut set to hit the market in 2020 and a potential economic recession looming. One of the few things that could upend this forecast is a significant slowdown in non-OPEC supply.

The surplus is largely predicated on a deterioration in demand at a time when supply continues to grow. The IEA predicts non-OPEC supply to expand by 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and by another 2.2 mb/d in 2020, with demand growth figures running at about half those levels.

The market could remain roughly in balance, or even see stock draws in the second half of 2019, largely because of the OPEC+ cuts and the involuntary outages in Iran and Venezuela. “However, the market faces potential oversupp ly in early 2020 when the call on OPEC crude oil tumbles to 28.4 mb/d,” the IEA wrote in its latest Oil Market Report. In July, OPEC produced 29.71 mb/d, so according to the IEA’s numbers, OPEC+ will have to slash output by quite a bit more next year in order to head off a supply glut.

Most of the global supply growth is coming from U.S. shale, which makes the pace of shale growth highly important to the forecast. Notably, however, U.S. oil production growth has been slowing. “So far this year, US crude oil supply growth has been lacklustre. Over the first five months of 2019, output rose only 75 kb/d,” the IEA said. Some of the recent lower-than-expected figures came from maintenance at offshore oil fields, and temporary disruptions due to a hurricane.

In the all-important Permian basin, production gains are still significant, but have been decelerating. Year-on-year production gains in the Permian hit a peak at 1.13 mb/d in August 2018, but the pace of growth slowed to 728,000 bpd this month. The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report forecasts more gains in September, but again, at an even slower rate of 705,000 bpd.

New pipelines in the Permian could unlock more production growth going forward. Discounts for Midland crude have vanished with the recent startup of a major new pipeline, and the expected inauguration of a few more later this year will add even more midstream capacity. But while the pipeline projects were once thought to unleash the next wave of explosive growth in the Permian, that is no longer the case.

The “imminent start-up of more than 2 mb/d of new pipeline capacity in the Permian, and a strong uptick in fracking activity in June, is expected to spur further growth in output and exports from the Gulf Coast,” the IEA said. “However, producers are being cautious, with few signs of an acceleration in drilling activity.”

The agency noted that a slowdown in drilling is “taking its toll on US service companies,” including for Schlumberger and Halliburton, both of which “presented a weaker outlook for exploration and production for the remainder of 2019 as independents continue to put greater emphasis on capital discipline rather than output growth,” the IEA said.

Outside of the Permian, U.S. shale supply is stagnating. “It is worth mentioning there are some basins struggling more than others,” Jamie Webster, senior director at Boston Consulting Group's Center for Energy Impact, told S&P Global Platts. “We are starting to see stalling efficiency gains in the Denver-Jule***urg and Eagle Ford basins.”

Meanwhile, production gains from non-OPEC countries other than the U.S. also figure to be important in the supply/demand balances over the next year. “The IEA prediction of a well-supplied oil market in 2020 depends on its forecast for faster non-OPEC supply growth outside North America. The IEA report expects this to rise from 0.21mb/d in 2019 to 0.85mb/d in 2020,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note. “Without this acceleration of growth, the predicted market surplus for 2020 disappears.”

The investment bank said that it is “not convinced that this growth pick-up will happen.” The IEA has repeatedly lowered its forecasted supply growth for this selection of countries. For instance, in its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA cut its supply forecast by 100,000 bpd, mainly due to disappointing performances in Brazil and Norway. “We think actual growth is also likely to undershoot the IEA’s forecast in 2020,” Standard Chartered concluded.