人类与人工智能的结合将推动油气项目规划

据油气新闻11月21日消息称，根据麦肯锡公司2019年的一份报告，中东地区拥有世界上最重要的油气运输规划，该地区未来计划了总计3960亿美元的项目，这意味着有很多钱可以赚，也有机会采用新的方法。

使用数字规划和风险评估工具的新方法，有望持续改变油气项目的经济效益，带来成功按时交付项目的潜力，同时释放出巨大的价值。

在该行业中，项目规划首次可以结合人工智能(AI)和人类智能来创建真正的风险智能。简而言之，这是通过将历史项目数据和人类专业知识结合在一起实现的。这样，组织人员和项目团队就可以为他们的项目制定更准确、更全面的风险调整时间表。

如果中东地区的石油和天然气公司可以利用这些工具来调整他们的调度方法，以满足他们独特的地区环境的需要，那么生产率的提高可以带来高达30%的成本节约——高达1180亿美元。

各种各样的因素可能导致项目延迟和资本支出管理不善，但根本原因与技术规划之类的不适合目标的问题没有太大关系，而更多地与输入到这些规划中的不准确数据有关。

随着人工智能的出现，趋势最终转向更准确的项目预测，一个简单的认识是，它需要一个专业团队的专业知识来建立一个规划，而不是仅让组织规划人员在工作。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

The combination of human and artificial intelligence is driving project planning in oil & gas

According to a 2019 McKinsey report, the Middle East has align="justify">New approaches using digital planning and risk assessment tools are poised to change oil and gas project economics forever, bringing with them the potential to deliver successful and align="justify">For the first time in the industry, project planning can combine artificial intelligence (AI) and human intelligence to create true risk intelligence. In a nutshell, this is achieved by bringing together historical project data and human expertise. This way, planners and project teams can produce more accurate and fully risk-adjusted schedules for their projects.

If oil and gas companies in the Middle East can use these tools to adapt their sche***ng practices to meet the needs of their unique regional environment, the productivity improvements could deliver up to 30% in cost savings – a whopping US$118B.

A wide variety of factors can contribute to project delays and CAPEX mismanagement, but the root cause has less to do with the likes of planning techniques not being fit for purpose and more to do with inaccurate data being fed into those plans.

The tide is finally turning toward more accurate project forecasting with the advent of AI and the simple realization that it takes the expertise of a specialized team to build a plan, rather than a single planner working in a silo.