明年油价或将继续走低

据今日油价11月29日报道，路透社周五对经济学家和分析师进行的月度调查显示，明年全球经济和石油需求增长的不确定性将继续给油价带来压力，因为市场供过于求的情况可能会持续下去。

据42位专家称，布伦特原油到2020年的平均价格将为每桶62.50美元，略高于上个月路透社的调查。路透社的分析师预测，明年国际基准原油的平均价格为62.38美元。

经济学家预计明年WTI原油均价为每桶57.30美元，也略高于上月估计的56.98美元。

周五美国东部时间上午7：36，WTI原油下跌0.15％至58.02美元，布伦特原油下跌0.62％至62.88美元。

分析师预计，由于经济增长疲软，2020年上半年需求增长将疲软。 另一方面，大多数人都认为市场上有太多的石油。 据路透社调查的专家称，需求增长可能在80万桶/日至140万桶/日之间。

明年，预计石油需求的增长将从今年较低的增长速度中回升，但是，来自石油输出国组织（OPEC +联盟）以外的生产国（例如美国，巴西和挪威）的石油供应增长快于需求增长，并抵消了该组织及其同盟重新平衡市场的努力。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Oil Prices Are Going Nowhere Next Year

Uncertainty over global economic and oil demand growth will continue to weigh align="justify">According to 42 experts, Brent Crude will average US$62.50 per barrel in 2020, just slightly up from last month’s poll by Reuters, in which analysts predicted an average price of US$62.38 for the international benchmark next year.

The economists expect WTI Crude to average US$57.30 a barrel next year, also slightly up from last month’s US$56.98 estimate.

At 07:36 a.m. EDT align="justify">The analysts expect weak demand growth in the first half of 2020 due to weak economic growth. align="justify">Next year, oil demand growth is expected to pick up from this year’s lower growth pace, but oil supply from producers not part of the OPEC+ coalition—such as the United States, Brazil, and Norway—is seen growing faster than the rise in demand, and offsetting efforts of the cartel and its allies to rebalance the market.