史上最大的供应过剩导致石油运费上涨

据油气新闻3月23日消息称，从4月开始，全球石油供应将出现有史以来单季度最大的供应过剩，造成每日约1000万桶的供应失衡。雷斯塔能源的独家分析显示，全球存储基础设施陷入困境，在短短几个月内将无法接收更多的原油和产品。

我们目前的流动性平衡显示，到2020年，平均每日供应将超过石油需求近600万桶，导致今年累计隐含库存增加20亿桶。

根据我们的严格分析，我们发现目前世界上大约有72亿桶原油和产品储存，其中包括目前在海上油轮上的13亿到14亿桶。我们估计，平均而言，全球76%的石油储藏量已经饱和。

油轮上基本上没有闲置的储油能力，因为沙特阿拉伯和其他产油国可能已经在2020年3月和4月消耗了超大型油轮(VLCC)的可用储量。

我们的数据显示，目前在岸原油和成品油的理论可储存能力仅为17亿桶。根据我们对2020年平均每日600万桶隐含石油库存的预估，理论上讲，需要9个月的时间才能填满所有岸上储油罐。

浮动存储通常使用VLCC，它们可以储存约200万桶石油。我们估计，目前全球大约有802艘可用的VLCC，总载重量为2.5亿吨，总储油能力为18亿桶。整个全球舰队，包括较小的Suezmax和Aframax船，估计总容量为6.3亿吨或46亿桶。

但是，为了保持区域之间的石油流动，必须有大约50％的压载物，因为油轮经常需要空载抵达目的地，在目的地，它们需要装载货物，这意味着，在任何时候，世界上约有一半的油轮被预订前往消费目的地，而另一半空油轮在去取油的途中。这使得可用船只的数量减少到57艘左右。

根据目的地的不同，在现货市场租一辆VLCC的成本已从上月的每日约2万美元升至20万至30万美元之间。

Rodriguez-Masiu总结道：“我们发现，与当前的生产计划相比，液体供应将必须减少约300万至400万桶/日，以使隐含库存量在2020年接近200万至300万桶/日，这是我们认为在中短期内可持续的隐含库存水平。”

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

History’s Largest Oil Glut Months Away From Topping World Storage While Tanker Freight Rates Explode

The largest oil supply surplus the world has ever seen in a single quarter is about to hit the global market from April, creating an imbalance of around 10 million barrels per day (bpd). An exclusive Rystad Energy analysis shows global storage infrastructure is in trouble and will be unable to take more crude and products in just a few months.

Our current liquid balances show supply surpassing oil demand by an average of nearly 6 million bpd in 2020, resulting in an accumulated implied storage build of 2.0 billion barrels this year.

based>There is essentially no idle storage capacity available>Our data shows that the theoretical available storage capacity at present is just 1.7 billion barrels>Floating storage normally uses VLCCs, which can carry about 2.0 million barrels. We estimate that there are about 802 VLCCs active globally with a combined capacity of 250 million deadweight tonnage (dwt), capable of collectively storing 1.8 billion barrels. The entire global fleet, including smaller Suezmax and Aframax vessels, is estimated to have a combined capacity of 630 million dwt or 4.6 billion barrels.

However, to keep oil flowing between regions, a ballast of around 50% is necessary as cargos often need to travel with no cargo to the destinations where they pick up oil, meaning that at any given time around half of the world’s fleet is booked traveling to consumer destinations, while the other half is empty>The cost of renting a VLCC>“We find that liquid supply will have to be reduced by around 3.0 million to 4.0 million bpd compared to the current production planning to bring the implied stocks builds closer to 2.0 million to 3.0 million bpd for 2020, which is the level of implied stocks build that we find sustainable in the short to medium term,“ Rodriguez-Masiu concludes.