今年全球新油气项目支出将下降68%

据天然气加工网站3月23日消息 奥斯陆雷斯塔能源咨询公司表示，如果油价保持在目前水平，今年新油气项目的支出可能下降三分之二以上。

今年年初以来，原油价格下跌了60%以上，原因是为阻止疫情扩散而实施的旅行和商业限制导致需求下降，而俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯则终止了一项限制生产的协议。

如果布伦特原油价格保持在每桶30美元左右，投资可能会下降至610亿美元（下降68%）。如果布伦特原油价格升至每桶40美元，投资可能会下降至820亿美元，而2019年的投资为1920亿美元。

截至格林尼治时间周一15时33分，北海石油价格为每桶25.7美元。

雷斯塔能源服务研究主管Audun Martinsen说：“上游企业将不得不密切关注其成本水平和投资计划，以应对价格和需求下降带来的财务影响。”

“公司已经开始减少2020年的年度资本支出，”他补充道。

壳牌和挪威独立石油公司Aker BP周一表示，将削减20%的资本支出。

法国能源集团道达尔表示，公司将总支出减少30多亿美元，其中25亿美元来自勘探和生产。

雷斯塔表示，预计包括埃克森美孚在圭亚那附近的Greater Liza开发项目在内的大型项目今年仍将获得批准。

由于自2014-16年上一次市场低迷以来所做的改善，北海大部分油气田的产量可以达到每桶30美元，但大多数尚未获批的项目都面临风险。

咨询公司的Neivan Boroujerdi补充道：“2020年的大多数最终投资决定都不在讨论范围之内。以目前的价格计算，未来五年我们预测可能会抹去近三分之二的开发支出。”

吴恒磊 编译自 天然气加工

原文如下：

2020 spending align="justify">Spending align="justify">Crude oil prices dropped more than 60% since the start of the year as demand fell due to travel and business restrictions to stem the spread of the coronavirus, while Russia and Saudi Arabia ended an agreement to curb production.

Investments are likely to fall to $61 billion or by 68% if the Brent crude price stays at around $30 a barrel, and to $82 billion, in case the price rises to $40 a barrel, compared with $192 billion spent in 2019.

North Sea oil was trading at $25.7 a barrel by 1533 GMT align="justify">“Upstream players will have to take a close look at their cost levels and investment plans to counter the financial impact of lower prices and demand,” said Audun Martinsen, head of Rystad’s energy service research.

“Companies have already started reducing their annual capital spending for 2020,” he added.

Anglo-Dutch major Shell and Norwegian independent oil firm Aker BP, 30% owned by BP, said align="justify">French energy group Total said the company would seek to reduce total spending by more than $3 billion, including $2.5 billion to come from exploration and production.

Rystad said it still expected major projects, including ExxonMobil’s Greater Liza development off Guyana, to be sanctioned this year.

The majority of the producing North Sea oil and gas fields could make money at $30 a barrel of oil thanks to improvements made since the last market downturn in 2014-16, but most yet to be approved projects were at risk.

“Most FIDs (final investment decisions) for 2020 are off the table. At current prices, nearly two-thirds of development spend could be wiped from our forecast over the next five years,” Neivan Boroujerdi at the consultancy added.